Red Flags - Customer's falling credit status

When it comes to credit risk profiles, watch closely for these red flags in the companies you depend most on for financial stability, your customer.

The stringent credit markets make spotting a soon-to-be insolvent company increasingly difficult. It's difficult to determine who's really on the edge and ready to go out of business, versus who is having tough times and struggling, but will survive.

To avoid losing future payments, companies should be on the constant lookout for red flags. Signs that a customer is having serious financial problems. The following don't necessarily indicate that a client is on its knees or in contingency mode. But depending on how any of them are relevant, should trigger a warning bell for your credit department. Worst case, the customer deserves close monitoring, and perhaps their payment terms renegotiated.

Changing Payment Patterns.
Perhaps the most obvious clue that something could be financially amiss, but one that cannot be ignored, particularly these days. Previously reliable customers that suddenly start missing due dates warrant attention: If your customer is falling further and further behind in making payments on their invoices, that certainly should be a tip off that something may not be right.

Renegotiation requests
If a company asks to spread payment windows from 30 days to 45 or 60 days, this should raise eyebrows. Hone your credit skepticism on requests to reschedule payment agreements, such as paying off one service over four months rather than all at once, as previously agreed upon.

Shifting Buying Habits.
Even if regular customers are paying on time, are they still purchasing? Examine and analyse the trends. If their previous buying was consistent, but their manner of placing orders has changed, this could suggest trouble. Also, keep a lookout for regular customers that suddenly start buying more. Pre-bankrupt companies have been known to stock up on inventory, knowing they won't be liable for the goods later on. This is a very unpleasant maneuver and should be stopped. Fix your customers' credit /risk profiles and keep them within their credit thresholds.

Rejection levels, Haggling or Higher Demands.
Is your customer returning items more often, or unjustifiably asking you to make deductions off invoices because of damages? Customers that start making unreasonable demands on delivery are sending you a warning. Your customer, may start saying his company expects a discount if a shipment doesn't arrive within very tight deadlines, especially if he knows that you can barely meet. Be warned and look behind the request.

Shrinking Cash Flow.
Keeping a close watch on your customers' cash balances over time, is what the good companies do all the time, if you have access to their financial statements. Find out how much they rely on equity, short-term debt, or long-term debt and adjust their credit /risk profile accordingly.

Large Accruals.
Many distressed companies carry sizable accruals on their balance sheets, so these figures need to be explored and justified. First you need to get access to their balance sheets, that in itself may cause difficulty and could also give an indication of solvency.

Tight Lips.
Customers that previously shared financials with your company, but now suddenly claim it's against their policy to share financial data. This should only make you more determined to find the true picture but if in doubt, err on the side of extreme caution. Shorten their credit lines until they come up with strong evidence to convince you.

High DSO (Days Sales Outstanding).
Companies that have fallen behind on collecting their own receivables may be unable to contribute to yours.

Managerial Shuffling.
Unexplained or questionable changes in management could mean that there's a disagreement between executives and the company's board or owner. More obvious signs of trouble in this regard would be the hiring of a chief restructuring officer or turnaround company. Its a warning flag, but at least they are addressing their issues. Tighten credit lines in the short term, til the re-structure is effective and things improve greatly.

Persistent Rumors.
Credit experts recommend keeping your ears open for any negative news about your customers, which may be the only way to garner helpful financial information about privately held clients. Pay attention to news articles, whispers from your sales teams, and other companies' credit managers. There are industry-specific credit groups that are invaluable for uncovering past-payment records of customers, search for them and make friends with them.

Tax Liens.
A tax lien against a company is the number-one indicator that it's going under. If a customer has postponed paying its taxes, you're not likely to see its overdue payments either. Sound the alarm!