Calculating the odds of being paid off - First step

"Will I still have a job tomorrow? and in the tomorrows after that"

With the world economy claiming to be in a far-reaching recession and companies announcing layoffs seemingly every day, the question of continuing employment looms large in every thinking person's mind.

Clearly, some employees feel that they are at greater risk of losing their jobs than others. What's not so clear is how to calculate that risk. So how do you become your own Risk Manager and carry out a risk assessment on yourself. Consider how you can devise a good method that would help, not only yourself but also other IT professionals, get a relatively objective handle on the odds of getting laid off.

You may be wondering why anyone would want to determine the likelihood of their losing a job. You may also believe that a 'layoff' risk assessment method could be a very helpful tool. Depending on your circumstances, outlook and character, many people worry unnecessarily about getting laid off and others who do get laid off, are often taken completely by surprise.

A risk assessment for layoffs could help IT professionals determine whether they are in the red zone (high) or the green zone (low) risk category, when job losses come around. Low-risk professionals will then be able to rest easy and carry on with their work and the high-risk employees can be proactively defend and entrench their positions, whilst actively preparing themselves emotionally, professionally and financially, for the moment when their jobs get cut.

As a first step, let us propose a list of possible variables that could indicate someone is likely to get laid off. Let us also propose another list of variables that could indicate someone is unlikely to get laid off.

Our goal is to develop an accurate and plausible assessment, one that will really help people get a grip on their futures. Coming up with such an assessment, can be difficult, for a whole variety of reasons. One of these reasons would be an incomplete or inappropriate list of variables.

If you examine the lists below and identify which of the variables are appropriate to your circumstances and discard those that are not. You can also weigh a certain number of the retained variables more heavily than others, because of their importance or criticality.

Examine also how the assessment is structured. Structuring it as a questionnaire would allow people to assign points for each negative variable (e.g. each strike against them) and subtract points for each positive variable. The conclusion would be easily calculated and greatly simplified. People with high scores are more likely to be laid off than people will lower scores.

Remember that the goal of this assessment is to help and support people, not to frighten them.

Variables that Could Indicate Someone Is Likely to Get Laid Off

1. Your employer is not meeting its financial plan. (he's broke!)
2. Your salary is at the high-end of the pay scale for your profession or function. (so much for ambition!)
3. A position or function you help support has been eliminated or restructured. (the horse died!)
4. You work on a project that has been cut or that you sense is going to be cut. (Zepellin restoration)
5. You gossip or complain a lot. (no wonder. Look at the previous options on this list)
6. The work you do is mundane or repetitive in nature (e.g. re-setting passwords or setting up routers) and could be outsourced to a third party. (or monkey with learning difficulties)
7. Your work is not customer-focused. (but I work in Security)
8. The function you work in is well/over-staffed (full of "fat" cats that need a trim)
9. You don't "fit in" with the 'culture' of your department. (You are sober)
10. Your company could find someone to replace you at a lower cost with relative ease (e.g. going to the bus stop line, rather than hiring a head hunter)

Variables That Could Indicate Someone Is Unlikely to Get Laid Off

1. You've demonstrated your ability to adapt to new strategies. (Flexible as Yoga)
2. You have good relationships with different people throughout your company. (married to the boss?)
3. Your position is cross-matrixed to different leaders. (you are a bigomist)
4. You have a good rapport with your boss, and your boss is regarded highly by senior management. (you still own the negatives from the office party)
5. You work on multiple projects that are critical to dealing with existing business conditions. (your wife sleeps around)
6. Your skills are up to date, in demand and align with the IT organization's current and future needs. (you have killed all the competition in the office)
7. Your company would have difficulty finding someone to fill your shoes. (you are overweight)