No Swine Flu Vaccine for the Elderly

What has happened to the normal adage of Woman and Children first?

Elderly swine flu victims should be sacrificed and sent to the back of the queue for anti-viral treatment, when supplies of the drugs are limited, according to new research in Italy.

Scientists found there were circumstances in which anti-virals such as the relatively ineffective Tamiflu, should be rationed in favour of younger adults.

The controversial strategy could be the most effective way to save lives and prevent illness, it was claimed.

Priorities
It is very interesting because it is not only indicative as to how these organisations think now but it is also how they will respond in the face of a fully blown Pandemic, when lives will be sacrificed and priorities will be established.

Italian Research
The research focused on Italy, which was said to have only enough anti-virals to treat seven million people, or 12% of the population.

Mathematical modeling showed that governments should stockpile enough drugs to treat at least a quarter of their populations, assuming moderate levels of infection. This in itself may lead to strategic prioritisation against the poor and elderly.

If supplies were lower than this, it made sense to ration the anti-virals according to age-specific fatality rates.

Historical Influence
When swine flu followed the pattern of the great 1918 pandemic and was most lethal to younger adults, treatment should not be targeted at the elderly, said the researchers. Instead, it should be reserved for the young.

This is the reverse of the policy adopted during outbreaks of normal seasonal flu, when priority is given to the over-65s. It is also academic because a new and effective ant-viral vaccine has yet to be developed and tested safely, prior to its distribution.

New Vaccine Risks
On release of the new vaccine, the risks are clear; the priority will be given to those deemed to be the youngest and most important; economically and politically powerful and influencial.

Unfortunately, if the vaccine is flawed, this will damage these very same people and cause a shift in the balance of power across the globe, affecting a tidal change in a large number of countries, organisations and populations.

Weathering the Storm
The first ones into the lifeboats to save their sinful souls, may find themselves in further peril at sea. Like rats jumping off the Titanic onto the iceberg for safety. Their fate remains unchanged, just the method is different.

We are all victims in a Pandemic but the great benefit of being economically and politically powerful and influencial is that you can make choices, whereas others can only wait, endure and accept, with stoicism and dignity.