H1N1: Tamiflu results questioned by the UK BMJ

Research published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) has confirmed that the antiviral oseltamivir, is only effective in reducing influenza A symptoms by 1 day. (normally Influenza A symptoms persist from 7 - 10 days)

It also confirmed that there was no evidence that oseltamivir prevented the most fatal complications, pneumonia and severe respiratory disorders.

It comes after the Government and GPs failed to reach an agreement on the swine flu vaccination programme for under-fives, with health visitors and district nurses now set to be asked by local NHS managers to step in.

The BMJ research has questioned the validity of research from Roche, the pharmaceutical giant that makes oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

More than a million courses of antivirals including Tamiflu have been given out to people across Britain since the start of the swine flu pandemic.

A review of 20 existing studies was carried out by a team led by experts from the Cochrane Collaboration, which last reviewed the evidence in 2005. Their updated study found Tamiflu "did not reduce influenza-related lower respiratory tract complications".

The drug was found to induce nausea while evidence of adverse reactions to the drug were "under-reported", they said.

Tamiflu was claimed to be effective in treating people preventatively, i.e. after they had come into contact with somebody who was infected, and shortened the length of symptoms in those with swine flu.

But the study criticised some of the evidence available and said Roche had not been able to "unconditionally" provide the information needed. As a result, the team dropped eight trials that were included in their earlier review because they were unable to independently verify the findings.

This leads to further speculation that the mass innoculation of peoples is commercially based, adding to the profits of the pharmaceutical companies, without there being sound medical evidence to back it up.

The power of the pharma lobbyists is such that this conspiracy to defraud the public has extended into the medical and political hierarchy and large incentives are being offered to executives, politicians and medical authorities that support the exploitation of this pandemic.

Airport Swine Flu (H1N1) Detectors - Smoke and Mirrors

WHEN aviation officials chose Mexico City for a meeting to discuss their response to pandemic outbreaks, they could scarcely have predicted swine flu would intervene. "The irony was amazing," says Tony Evans of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in Montreal, Canada. "The meeting will probably go ahead in June unless we get another wave of H1N1."

Future pandemics will almost certainly be spread via air travel, with flights capable of carrying a pathogen across the world in hours. The UN's Convention on International Civil Aviation requires nations to "prevent the spread of communicable diseases by means of air navigation". That is easier said than done, given the confined space of modern aircraft and the use of re-cycled unscrubbed cabin air on all flights, as a fuel and cost saving measure.

CAPSCA - the Cooperative Arrangement for the Prevention of the Spread of Communicable diseases by Air travel.

CAPSCA aims to help airports in developing nations prepare for a pandemic, and its schemes are now getting off the ground in the Americas, Asia-Pacific and Africa. They will be expected to install US manufactured devices and follow the advice of their consultants.

Optimistically CAPSCA state; "When an aircraft arrives with a suspected disease case on board, CAPSCA will make sure you've thought about where you are going to park the plane, how you will deal with the luggage and how are you going to keep in touch with the passengers that haven't got any symptoms (when they boarded the plane)."

All this does is extend the time by which the other passengers and air crew are exposed to the virus and increase the likelihood of them contracting the disease, if they have not already done so on the flight.

Evans says. "You also have to work out which people on the plane are most likely to be infected (if not all) and whether they need prophylactic treatment or admission to hospital. How will you protect air crew and customs officers? Careful planning is crucial and CAPSCA will promote that", Evans explains.

Frankly, this is nothing but hype, rhetoric and grandstanding

Frankly, this is nothing but hype, rhetoric and grandstanding. People who gather in confined spaces and share the same breathing air for hours on end, will contract the disease. Air crew, airport staff and customs officers, will contract the disease.

Immunisation with Tamiflu and other so-called anti-viral inoculations, is less than effective and will not act as a 'barrier' for air crew and airport staff. The virus, by its nature, mutates regularly and the time taken to develop effective anti-viral drugs and put them into large scale production, is 4 - 6 months. The same time taken for the pandemic to burn itself out, without any human or pharmaceutical intervention. Again, it is the nature if viruses.

In the case of an increasing pandemic, effective anti-viral drugs will only be available on a priority basis. Those who decide the priority, will be the first to receive the drugs. The second priority will be given to the forces that will protect the decisions and decision makers. This is what is meant by 'careful planning'. Everyone else should prepare for a long wait.

H5N1 Bird Flu - Pandemic preparation?

UK to double pandemic flu drug stockpiles in a futile attempt to prepare for a an epidemic of Bird Flu (H5N1) in the UK. I carried out a research project for the European Space agency in 2006 and published a paper of the findings. I still retain an interest in the subject and my attention was drawn to a recent move by the UK government.

Pharmaceutical vaccines
Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) - 1st line vaccine is ineffective against new strains of emerging bird flu

Relenza (Zanamivir) - common flu vaccine, may dampen down the effects or the symptoms of a flu virus

UK Government statement

The UK has awarded contracts to double emergency supplies of flu drugs, promising to treat ‘everyone who is predicted to fall ill in a pandemic’. The government claims that this makes the UK one of the most prepared countries in the world. This will please the pharmaceutical lobby more than the National Health Authority.

Pharmaceutical lobby

The agreements with Roche and GlaxoSmithKline will double antiviral stockpiles, which are expected to be in place by April 2009. The contracts will deliver an additional 7.6 million treatment courses of Tamiflu (Roche) and 10.6 million treatment courses of Relenza (GlaxoSmithKline). Once the extra capacity is in place, there will be 33.5 million ineffective treatment courses of antivirals, with limited shelf life.

High mortality rates

The government states that without antiviral treatment, estimates suggest that up to 750,000 people could die in the UK during a pandemic. Antivirals will play a key role in the clinical response, reducing the severity of the illness and reducing the chance that complications such as pneumonia will set in.The onset of pneumonia is more likely to be a bacterial infection due to the immune system being seriously compromised and the treatment for bacterial pneumonia is antibiotics.

Current status

There are currently enough drugs for a quarter of the population, but the latest cross-government pandemic plan aims to cope with the worst-case scenario of an infection rate that could hit up to half the UK population. The new contracts awarded by the Department of Health is said to ensure that that aim can be met. Unfortunately that is not the case.

H5N1 mutations

The bird flu virus mutates regularly through its RNA and for it to become a pandemic affecting humans, it needs to develop the capability of crossing the species barrier, from birds to humans. It has yet to do this, as far as we are aware. Bird flu has mutated and crossed from birds to other mammals e.g. mice, rats, cats, pigs, etc. The greatest risk will come if the virus mutates from bird to human, using another mammal as an interim host.

Maybe the UK government know better. Because the bird flu has not yet mutated, it has not yet been forensically examined. Therefore, a matching vaccine has not yet been developed i.e. one that specifically targets, a yet to be mutated flu virus. In average, and with maximum effort, it takes scientists and pharmacologists 6 months to develop a new anti-viral vaccine. So we are still in danger, when the time comes, despite noises to the contrary.

UK Public Health Minister

Public Health Minister Dawn Primarolo said:

"The UK is already widely recognised as one of the best prepared countries in the world. The increased flu-drug stockpile means that we should be able to treat everyone who falls ill in a pandemic." I think the key word here is 'treat' not cure. You can treat a broken leg with a band aid but it doesn't help and will not 'cure' it.

Broken umbrella
Dawn continues "Antivirals are an important part of our robust countermeasure strategy and will ensure we respond effectively in the event of a flu pandemic." Nice speech Dawn but a think you had better look behind the pharmaceutical companies' curtains and see the truth for what it is, scary!

Further Information is available from; Roche Pandemic Preparation Toolkit AND GSK Pandemic Preparation page